The Big Bang Theory

Cycle overbought stock market

Record leveraged speculation

Record U.S. stock inflows

Global Trade War / EM currency implosion

Fed / BOJ policy collision

What to believe?

Santa Claus is coming to town:

The top performing ETF year to date in 2024 is the 2x leveraged Nvidia ETF. However it's running out of gas at the exact same level as July which was when the BOJ and Fed had their last policy collision:

Today Momentum Tech surged to another 3 standard deviation move above the 200 day moving average. The only two such events in 20 years, both within four weeks:

For 2025, we are to believe that the Fed will continue cutting rates while Trump unleashes unfettered growth via mass deregulation. And yet, the last time Trump got elected, the Fed tightened for two years straight when the core PCE was lower than it is right now.

Today Powell admitted that inflation is not yet fully under control:

Despite, "higher than expected inflation", markets still expect the Fed will cut rates two weeks from today with an almost 75% probability.

Following 2024, the official year of Ponzi, in 2025, we will have a Crypto King as president and a wide open monetary spigot:

All of which now puts the Fed back on collision course with the BOJ which has been growing more hawkish in recent days:

"BANK of Japan (BOJ) governor Kazuo Ueda has plenty of data to support the case for raising the benchmark rate in December, an outcome that would mark the first tightening of policy three times in a calendar year since the peak of Japan’s asset bubble in 1989"

Which will prove once and for all that the secret to effortless wealth is printed money.

Or, just a colossal waste of time circle jerk of idiots.

Position accordingly.