Morning Market Report: Feb. 7th, 2024
Some bizarro headlines last night and this morning...
FR: There has been a mass exodus of high profile executives from this company. Why this is bullish is not for me to say:
"NYCB has begun searching for a new chief risk officer and chief audit executive “with large bank experience,” Cangemi added. Managers holding those roles left the bank in the months before its disastrous earnings report last week"
"U.S. investors are so bullish on technology stocks that even a slight hiccup could send the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 careening lower, according to a team of Citigroup equity strategists"
When I read this article and looked at their charts I didn't really see what was the big deal about it. So I went searching through the CFTC database to pull this information.
Now I get it.
But it gets even more bizarre, because ultra-bull Tom Lee of Fundstrat became tactically bearish. He sees a 7% pullback followed by a rocket ride higher. In other words a minor speed bump in a bull market. He of course is arriving at this prediction by data mining 100 years of mostly totally irrelevant data while ignoring all of today's imminent risks.
"Lee looked at market history and found seven instances since 1927 when the S&P 500 rose 13 out of 14 weeks, as it just did. In four of those seven instances, the stock market peaked within the next two weeks"
Four out of seven, isn't that close to 50%? A coin toss would be almost as accurate.
Nevertheless, given Tom Lee's newfound tactical bearishness, bears beware.
The most likely scenarios now are:
1) Market goes straight line higher to infinity without looking back OR,
2) The market tanks 7% and then bounces while all muppet hedge funds get fully onboard, and then it explodes lower. You know, like last time they didn't see it coming:
