Gap 'n Crap 2.0
Today is the second consecutive weekly gap 'n crap. Bulls and bears have been fighting over the SPX 5,000 line for the past week. Today bulls gave it back again, but same as last week, the day ended with BTFD.
Which puts the fate of this epic battle squarely in the hands of Nvidia...
Ahead of Nvidia's seminal earnings tomorrow we learn that this is the most anticipated earnings release in market history:
"Traders are wagering on around an 11% move in Nvidia shares after it reports Wednesday evening and through Friday, Cboe Global Markets data show"
FR: On a market cap x expected move basis this implies a ~$200 billion post-earnings move which is the entire market cap of Disney. The largest expected post-earnings market cap move in stock market history:
In other words, one stock now holds the fate of the entire Disney market.
Across the AI/Tech space there was quite a bit of pain today. For some reason no one wants to wait to see if Nvidia can "beat" on earnings again.
In other news, as I wrote on Twitter, the world is quickly hurtling towards recession. The only two major economies NOT in recession presently are the U.S. and India. Those happen to be the countries enjoying the largest speculative stock bubbles. Therefore one can imagine a rather abrupt ending to the party, beginning with stock market deleveraging and quickly moving onto everything deleveraging. Meanwhile the Fed will be slow to act while fearing inflation and perceived election interference. As I showed on Twitter, Congress will be "worried" about the deficit and those concerns won't just magically disappear. Until they are re-elected.
Which means it's going to be a very long year for stimulus addicts.
