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Category Posts

Secular Bear Market
First off, in order to set the table for my hypothesis of a secular bear market, let's discuss Wall Street's current S&P price predictions...
11 hours ago3 min read

The Trade War Investment Hypothesis
These algo-driven markets are becoming untradable. So below I will discuss some strategies I am using to deal with the face ripping...
4 days ago4 min read

MAD: Mutual Assured Destruction
In the lexicon of warfare, what's taking place between the U.S. and China in this trade war is the economic equivalent of self...
6 days ago3 min read

Hard Landing Denial
The consistent theme of 2025 since Trump was inaugurated, has been investors in denial over the scope and scale of Trump's trade war. As...
7 days ago3 min read

Black Swan Friday
As I described in my last blog post, a Black Swan trade war escalation took place this week catching both retail investors and...
Apr 43 min read

American Brexit
First off, take all predictions with a grain of salt mine, including this one. In fairness however I have been warning all along that...
Apr 35 min read

The Nuclear Option
The big "Liberation Day" is only one day away now and the most recent indications are that Trump is about to reach for the nuclear trade...
Apr 14 min read

1930 Deja Vu
Exiting the first quarter, stocks are having their second worst start to a presidential term on record, the Barron's article this morning...
Mar 284 min read

The Complacency Bubble
The last major global trade war was in 1930 at the start of the Great Depression. Looking back, pundits will be widely discredited for...
Mar 243 min read

The Paradox of Thrift
"The paradox of thrift, a core concept in Keynesian economics, suggests that while individual savings are beneficial, if everyone tries...
Mar 194 min read

In Trump We Trust
There is no sign of panic in markets because investors widely assume Trump has things all under control. If they're wrong about that, the...
Mar 153 min read

The Depression Trade
News of an impending recession is spreading like wildfire on Wall Street. Over the weekend, Trump admitted there will be some "pain" in...
Mar 103 min read
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